Oil above $100 was the visible move Thursday, and the selloff in equities followed easily enough. The less obvious move came in long Treasuries, where yields rose as a second shipping corridor began carrying some of the same operating risk that had already impaired Hormuz.

A Saudi tanker, Encelia, was struck in the Red Sea and caught fire, though its crew was reported safe. The Houthis also said they attacked a second tanker, Layla, but that claim remains unconfirmed. Bab el-Mandeb stayed open, and substantial commercial traffic continued to pass through it.

The location mattered because traffic through Hormuz has held at only three vessels per day for three straight days, leaving the Red Sea route more important as a workaround. Ships have started rerouting, and Saudi Aramco has begun offering additional loadings from Egypt’s Mediterranean coast.

Those alternatives preserve the flow of oil, but they do it through longer voyages, higher fuel and insurance costs, and fewer available tankers. The barrels can still reach buyers while the delivery system becomes slower and more expensive, and the longer that lasts, the more of the shock moves from the spot price into freight, corporate costs and household budgets.

Brent rose 7 percent and briefly traded above $102 before easing toward $100.30. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.7035 percent, its highest level in 18 months, while the 30-year stayed near 5.17 percent and close to a 19-year high.

Markets put roughly one-in-three odds on a Federal Reserve increase next week and about a 70 percent probability on an ECB increase in September. Neither central bank has committed to raising rates, so this remains a repricing of policy risk rather than a policy decision.

Central banks can look through a brief increase in oil because the initial price effect eventually falls out of the inflation data. But that calculation becomes harder when higher fuel and transportation costs last long enough to influence corporate pricing, household spending and inflation expectations.

The ECB’s own language reflected that distinction. It held rates unchanged, but said energy prices remained well above their pre-conflict levels and that the shock’s full inflationary effect had yet to appear. The bank is watching not only the initial increase in energy prices, but also how long it lasts and whether indirect and second-round effects begin to follow.

There is still room for the pressure to fade. Bab el-Mandeb hasn’t closed, the second tanker claim hasn’t been verified, and the IEA continues to identify cushions within the crude market. Eurozone business activity also strengthened while survey measures of input and selling-price inflation slowed.

The cross-asset response remained narrow as well. Oil, long yields, the dollar and Fed pricing rose, while equities and gold weakened. High-yield credit moved only modestly, which kept the pressure concentrated in inflation, duration and risk appetite rather than broad funding stress.

I’m watching whether crude, tanker traffic and long yields retreat together. If Brent falls below the mid-$90s, large-tanker traffic normalizes and tightening probabilities decline with yields, Thursday’s repricing will have been temporary. If crude falls but the long end stays high, the oil shock will have moved from a shipping problem into a policy constraint, and the Fed and ECB will have to decide whether they can still afford to look through it.