Oil fell Tuesday as traders gave more weight to a proposed 10-day ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Brent declined about 1.1 percent to $88.26, while Japan’s Nikkei gained nearly 3 percent and South Korea’s KOSPI rose 4.5 percent. The decline in crude, however, did not coincide with any visible improvement in shipping conditions.

Kpler recorded only four commodity vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, down from seven on Sunday, and no visible very large crude carriers or LNG tankers made the passage. A tanker reported that it had been hit in the strait, while two Dynacom-managed vessels were struck by projectiles of unknown origin near Oman.

Hormuz isn’t closed. U.S. Central Command says American forces have helped facilitate roughly 900 vessel transits carrying 450 million barrels of crude since early May, so substantial commercial traffic has continued during the conflict. But that cumulative figure sits uneasily beside Monday’s vessel count and mix, which are difficult to read as evidence that normal operations are returning.

Oil futures can respond immediately to the possibility that diplomacy interrupts the conflict before the disruption becomes more severe. Shipowners, insurers and cargo buyers need evidence that passage is becoming safer before they commit large vessels, so the crossing data continues to reflect the operating risk that exists now.

That risk is no longer confined to Hormuz. The Houthis have declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, threatening traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb at the southern entrance to the Red Sea. The declaration isn’t proof that an effective blockade is in place, but it puts pressure on the route Saudi Arabia has been using to reduce its dependence on Hormuz.

Saudi crude can move across the country to Yanbu before continuing toward customers in Europe or Asia, and more than 4.5 million barrels per day of crude and fuel have left the Red Sea port since April, with roughly 70 percent headed to Asia. If the Bab el-Mandeb became unsafe, more than 3 million barrels per day of Saudi crude could face longer routes, and sending some of those cargoes around Africa could add approximately a month to delivery times.

Neither passage needs to close completely for the disruption to become more expensive. Longer voyages tie up tankers, raise freight and insurance costs, and delay cargoes even when the oil eventually reaches its destination.

Saudi Arabia still has several export options, and shipping companies know how to reroute around Africa, so the Houthi declaration shouldn’t be treated as proof that Saudi supply is about to disappear. The threat may never be enforced against Saudi-linked vessels, while a ceasefire could restore confidence before inventories and fuel markets absorb another material loss.

For now, though, the relief remains clearer in financial prices than in physical flows. The 10-year Treasury yield stayed near 4.59 percent, the 30-year remained above 5 percent and long-duration Treasuries declined even as crude fell and Asian equities rallied. That doesn’t suggest systemic financial stress, but it does suggest that investors aren’t treating lower oil as sufficient to remove the inflation and duration risk associated with a conflict that continues to restrict shipping.

The more convincing evidence will come from the vessel mix rather than another diplomatic headline. A return of VLCC and LNG traffic would carry more weight than several smaller crossings, especially if freight and war-risk insurance costs begin to fall and the Houthi declaration produces no attacks or changes in Saudi shipping patterns.

If those conditions improve and Brent holds below the mid-$80s, the financial relief will have begun to reach the physical energy system. Until then, Tuesday’s oil decline remains a bet on diplomacy while the largest commercial vessels are still waiting for safer conditions.